In 2100, the birth rates of all countries are expected to decline

a staggering 198 out of 224 countries are projected to experience population declines

A recent study has raised concerns over declining birth rates across nearly all countries by the end of the 2000s, posing challenges in population balancing.

By 2100, a staggering 198 out of 224 countries are projected to experience population declines, while birth rates in poorer nations are anticipated to rise. Published by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in the Lancet, a weekly health journal, the study highlights sub-Saharan Africa as a significant contributor to future births, with countries like Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, Samoa, and Tajikistan showing promising population growth rates.

Natalia V. Bhattacharya, principal research scientist at IHME and co-author of the paper, emphasized the profound implications of these trends on global economics, necessitating societal restructuring and a recalibration of international power dynamics. The study underscores the complex challenges of migration and global aid amidst intensifying competition for economic sustenance, particularly as birth rates surge in sub-Saharan Africa.

The author warns of demographic shifts resulting from divergent birth rate trajectories, potentially leading to fragmentation as affluent nations struggle to sustain growth while poorer countries grapple with harnessing their expanding populations. Bhattacharya also highlights the looming challenges for sub-Saharan Africa in managing population growth risks and advocates for concerted efforts to mitigate climate change impacts and bolster healthcare infrastructure.

Addressing child mortality, poverty eradication, women’s reproductive rights, family planning, and education are identified as crucial steps for governments worldwide. This comprehensive study, part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injury, and Risk Factors Study, draws on data spanning from 1950 to 2021 and involves over 8,000 scientists from 150 countries, reflecting a decade-long effort to understand and address the complexities of global demographic shifts.